So What Happens Next?

The human population on this planet is set to crest in 50-ish years and then slowly crawl downwards, absent a disaster like the 1918 Spanish Flu, which caused a population decline somewhere between 2% and 5% (we weren’t so good at counting back then), and subsequently caused (along with the Second World War) a significant slowdown in the birth rate.

Things really picked up after the Second World War, when so many men returned home to an economy that now included women in large numbers, and productivity and living standards shot up. The resulting baby boom is something we all know about.

But we have some strange effects because of the “baby bust” that followed the baby boom.

China’s population has been declining for three years, to the point where India (which is still growing) has more people.

Japan has the biggest boom-to-bust effect, and there are government programs to encourage couples to have children.

For more than a decade now, the number of adult diaper units sold in Japan has exceeded that for infants. That hasn’t happened yet in North America but it’s only a few years away.

The modern economy that supports us and provides opportunity for a better life in so many ways was built on the premise of more people consuming more goods and services that more people create, in a self-perpetuating cycle.

In the last 100 years, technological advances have helped fewer and fewer people make more and more goods. Most of humanity was involved in growing food when Canada was a fledgling nation, and now less than 2% of us do that work.

Modern cultures see declining birth rates because having children is more about love and lifestyle than survival these days. We can afford to have fewer and still carry on the family and the species.

Economies built on end consumers (and not government spending, like underdeveloped nations need to create necessary infrastructure) have increased immigration as the domestic birth rates declined, ensuring a growing consumer base.

My optimism is showing: The world has indeed gotten better over time, and I see that as objective reality. Of course, terrible things occur on a regular basis, and we learn more about them than we did in the past because of information mobility, it’s just that we don’t take notice of all the good things because we take them for granted.

Women are more free than ever before to pursue their own ambitions, so right off the bat a solid 52% of the population are experiencing improved lives. Not that it’s perfect by any means…

Fewer people die by armed conflict with each proceeding decade since the Second World War. Literacy is at its highest, abject poverty at its lowest.

Most people today live better lives than the royalty of 100 years ago, when almost nobody could have a hot shower on demand and indoor toilets were a luxury.

Next Up?

So back to the question of who’s going to buy all the stuff we make. It turns out that as families prosper, they buy fewer goods (no matter how many TVs you have, you can only watch one at a time) and consume more services (health care, travel, dining out).

As a species we lack a certain amount of imagination, but it’s getting better. The thinking that got us here is not the thinking that’ll get us to the next place; we have to evolve. The following examples illustrate the challenge of linear thinking.

In the early 1900s the horse manure in New York City was piled so high that homes were built with raised front stoops, and calculations were made as to when the city would finally be consumed by it all. Along came the automobile and out went the horse and buggy industry and all the waste problems that came with it.

When the project for unwinding and mapping the human genome was announced, it was projected to take 15 years. After seven years, they had mapped a mere 1% of our DNA and mainstream critics declared the project a bust, correctly stating it would take 700 years at that rate. Ray Kurtzweil (fascinating thinker, look him up) argued that the project was indeed on schedule, and that progress would not be linear but exponential, as scientists were inventing new technology as they went along — new microscopes and computing power among them. The project was successfully completed in only 13 years.

When the space shuttle was first launched in 1981, the computing power on board had already been surpassed by the first IBM PC at Radio Shack.

Artificial intelligence is going to disrupt our economic models, putting people out of work in some sectors and adding them in others. I’m scared and excited at the same time.

Will this be the beginning of Universal Basic Income where Maslow’s pyramid base is funded for everyone, leaving each person to pursue higher endeavours?

We will never be without problems. They will get bigger, exceeded only by the next generation’s capacity to solve them. The thinking that got us this far is not the thinking it’ll take to make the next leap. Being a “cynical optimist,” it’s my contention that humans will make poor choices in the beginning of any undertaking and sort ourselves out over time. I’m cynical because of my experience, optimistic because of my understanding of history. The arc of progress is bumpy but unstoppable. ■