Brexit and Bregret. Breunion or BRINO?
Jun 23, 2023
Brexit
We all know Brexit as the UK vote that took place on June 23rd, 2016, in the midst of a populist wave sweeping the UK and the world. The vote was meant to pull the UK out of the European Union economic bloc and the trade agreements it had originally negotiated.
The vote to commit Brexit passed decisively by a 52% to 48% margin, and the very messy process began, culminating in a final secession at midnight on January 31st, 2020. The vote was not homogeneous throughout the UK, however, with Scotland voting overwhelmingly (by modern standards) to remain in the EU – 55% to 45%. A vote on Scottish independence had been held only twenty-one months earlier, with the country deciding to remain a part of the UK specifically because this offered Scotland access to the massive EU markets. An independent Scotland would have had to create brand new trade agreements globally.
Northern Ireland had voted in 2016 by a margin of 56% to 44% to “Remain”. They share an undefended land border with the independent Republic of Ireland that is a part of the EU, which causes additional complications. Part of recent peace accords (Good Friday Agreement in 1998) was an agreement that the border would go undefended. Not a problem so long as all parties were in the EU— now there is potential to smuggle goods between an EU country (Ireland) and a non-EU country (Northern Ireland/UK).
What a mess.
Bregret
Less than two months after Brexit was realized in 2020, the pandemic struck and a global economic shutdown ensued, causing great damage. The UK is the only major economy whose GDP has not yet recovered to exceed 2019 levels. The EU partners rightly look inward for simpler trade before looking abroad to a separate currency, country, and trade agreements. The UK suffers therefore from reduced economic activity.
Inflation also remains stubbornly high in the UK, currently 8.7%. There are a host of reasons for that but suffice it to say that subjects to His Majesty are neither pleased nor amused.
Breunion or BRINO?
It’s highly unlikely that the political environment is either favorable or stable enough to go through another referendum. While current polling has a majority regretting the 2016 vote, campaigns and events of the day have a way of swaying the vote in unforeseen ways.
The greater likelihood for recovery is a series of trade agreements between the UK and EU that highly mimic what would have been the situation under “Remain”. This might be called BRINO – Brexit In Name Only. It would avoid a resurgence of populism and all the turmoil that comes with it while achieving the goal of closer ties to Europe.
The downside of BRINO is it won’t happen quickly enough to be a factor in alleviating the current UK difficulties. Trade agreements take time, and they’re complicated. It’s like the reverse of separating conjoined twins – imagine wanting to conjoin two complex organisms!
It’s much easier to break something than to build it or put it back together. I wish them well and a speedy recovery to thrive once again.
Alain Quennec
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