Quarterly Commentary – July 2025

WELL, ISN’T THIS INTERESTING?!

For those of us who grew up in the 80’s, you might recognize this phrase.  For me it will always make me think of Dana Carvey as the Church Lady on Saturday Night Live!  Yes, many nights in my tweenaged years babysitting late on a Saturday night watching SNL… it was a great educational experience!

80’s nostalgia aside, this phrase was what came to mind as I re-read my Quarterly Commentary from April.  At that time, my focus was on the diminishing economic environment and falling stock markets due to Trump’s tariff battles.  And yet, here we are with the Canadian S&P/TSX and the US S&P 500 both finishing today (July 10th) at all-time highs!

On April 4th (the date I wrote my last commentary), the year-to-date returns of the Canadian S&P/TSX minus 6.21%… and the US S&P 500 was minus 13.73%.

Fast forward to today and the year-to-date numbers show the Canadian S&P/TSX is up 9.52%… and the US S&P 500 is up 6.78% (source: Bloomberg).  In the span of ~3 months, this is a swing of ~15% in Canada, and ~20% in the US!  What a difference 90 days can make!

While I would love to suggest this upswing will continue, and it might for a while, I refuse to bank on it.  Even if President Trump was not so volatile in his opinions/directions/policies, there are no shortage of things that can unexpected derail economic and market growth. 

There still remains no shortage of potential speed bumps that could show themselves.  President Trump’s trade battles continue, the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine remain active, and there is a stronger smell of geopolitical conflict in the air.  Thus, I remain convicted in our investment thesis… stay focused on the long-term and invest in companies with strong market positions, who are leaders in their industries, who carry relatively little debt, and who consistently have strong balance sheets.

As for portfolio changes in our client portfolios, in the 2nd quarter, we made some small tweaks to add a bit more income to our balanced portfolios with an increase in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT’s), and in our growth portfolios, we traded a position where the debt load went above our comfort threshold… both positions were only ~2% of their respective portfolios. 

Even in the midst of great volatility, investment management is most often characterized by small adjustments.  It is kind of like driving on a highway… it is always better to make small, steady, adjustments than to make snappy, big adjustments that may put you in the ditch!

Driving lessons and SNL aside, I hope you are having a wonderful summer and I look forward to keeping in touch!

All the best,

Bryson

Tax Planning

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